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1b:Td32,こんにちは！早稲田大学文学部に通っている者です！今の過去問の点数で合格できるのか、と悩む気持ちよくわかります。自分も過去問を解いて同じような悩みを抱えていました。
今回は
①得点調整について
②回答者が本番何割だったか？
③実際何割とればいいの？
について書いていこうと思います。

①得点調整について
早稲田文学部は本番何割で合格出来るかについてネット上には7割とも8割とも書かれていますが、これらはどちらも正しいです！どういうことかというと、早稲田の入試には得点調整というものを行っている学部があり、文学部でも行われています。この関係で、どの教科が高くて、あるいは低くてその合計点数になったのかによって同じ素点でも合否が変わってきます！
得点調整の計算方法についてはたくさんの説がありどれが正しいのかはわかりませんが、受験者平均点が高い教科ほど得点調整で大きく点数が低くなるのは変わらないようです。なので例年平均点が高い国語は得点調整の影響を受けやすく高得点を取る必要があり、逆に社会系は得点調整の影響を受けづらいとされています。ここで「何割で受かる」というのは得点調整後の点数ではなく素点で何割かということです！

②回答者が本番何割だったか？
では実際自分は本番どれくらいの点数取ったかというと、細かい点数はおぼえていませんが、
英語:7割
国語:8割
日本史:6割
合計:7割
といった感じだったと記憶しています。この点数は7割で受かる人の良い例だと自分では思っています笑
自分は英語国語は比較的得意だったのですが、それに比べて日本史が壊滅的でした。なので日本史で落ちると思っていたのですが、英語と国語で平均をそこそこ大きく上回れたのが合格の要因になったかなと思います。

③実際何割とればいいの？
最後に、質問者様が実際本番で何割取れれば合格できるかですが、上に書いた通りどの教科で稼ぐかによって変わりはしますが、目標とする点数「英語6割、国語8割、世界史8割」ならばやや合格する確率のほうが落ちる確率より高いと思います。全体だと7割前半くらいになると思いますが、最も得点調整の影響を受ける国語で高得点を取れれば合格率はぐっと上がります！実際質問者様の目標点数と同じように、英語はあまり高くなかったけれど国語世界史で8割ほど本番で取って合格したという友人もいました。
そのうえで、英語を7割まで持っていければ合格はほぼ確実だと思います！

今は受験生として最もつらい時期だと思いますが、悩んでいるのはあなただけではありません。合格した人もみんな同じような悩みを抱えたまま本番を迎えます。本番まで今できることを精一杯やればきっと合格できます。
長くなりましたが、あなたが合格することを願っています！1d:T18a6,むうさんはじめまして。早稲田社学3年の者です。私も文構を併願し（落ちました）、その時の得点開示のデータがありますので、それを含め、他データも参照しながら、英検利用と3科目型のどちらが良いか分析していきたいと思います。
文学部は受験していないため、今回は文構のみのデータを扱いますが、両学部受験事情はほぼ同様かと思いますので、参考にしてみて下さい。

本回答は以下の構成です。
①英検利用、3科目型どちらが良いのか
②文構の特徴
③むうさんの現状

以上、2点です。

①英検利用、3科目型どちらが良いのか
結論、両方受験しましょう。

両方受験可能とのことですので、少しでも合格率を高めたいなら両方受けるべきです。

なお本相談では、両方受けるにしろ、英語の勉強に重点を置くか、そうでないかという部分が趣旨であると思います。
この結論は、英語に重点を置くべきです。

その理由ですが、国語と日本史の伸びしろはもう少ないからです。5割を7割にするのと、7割を9割にするのでは、同じ2割上昇でも後者の方が負担は大きいです。これを経済学の分野では限界効用逓減の法則と言います。画像検索で「限界効用逓減」と調べてみると、分かりやすい図が出てくると思います。

②文構の特徴
ご存知の通り、文構は得点配分が特殊です。英国がそれぞれ75点、日本史が50点となっています。大学入試では主に、英語だけ配点が高い、もしくは全科目同一なのが一般的です。したがって、国語が優遇されている受験方式と言えるでしょう。ましてや、英検利用ではなおさらです。
したがって、国語でライバルを圧倒する学力があるならば、英検利用は最適です。（日本史も当然、他を圧倒する学力がなければならないが）

③むうさんの現状
まず、現状をまとめる前に、重要なことを一つ言っておきます。
過去問を解いたら各年度各科目の平均点を調べましょう。以下を読めば私の言っている意味がわかるかと思います。

それでは、むうさんの各科目の過去問得点状況を見てみます。
英語：不明
国語：75%
日本史：80%

以下は、3科目型入試の過去10年（2014-2023）平均点の中央値です。
（小数点第二位四捨五入）
英語：37.3点（49.7%）
国語：45.6点（60.8%）
日本史：31.3点（62.7%）

何が言いたいかと言うと、英語だけ平均点は例年低いと言うことです。だから、むうさんが英語ができないというのも、「他教科と比較して低い」という意味ならば、それは至極当然の結果ということです。またこれは中央値です。これより低い年、高い年もあるということです。


国語で見てみれば、過去10年の平均点は、
最高値：52.1点（69.5%）（2015年）
最低値：40.4点（53.8%）（2017年）
これだけ乖離があります。
特に、2021年以降は3年連続平均点が極めて高く65%前後です。

先ほど、文構の特徴として、国語が優遇され、英検利用ならば、他を圧倒する国語力がなければならないと言いましたが、平均点プラス10%程度では、「圧倒している」とはいえないのではないかと思います。
「圧倒できない」とどうなるかというと、標準化で大きく点数を下げられます。
私は2021年度入試で素点54点取りましたが、標準化で44.572点まで下げられました。（ちなみに平均は48.95点）約10点の下げ幅です。すなわち、平均点が高い年では、80%程度取ってやっとスタートラインくらいな訳です。

国語について述べてきましたが、次は日本史です。日本史では80%前後の得点率のようですね。かなり良い点数かと思います。
私は早稲田の日本史を80年分研究しました。（文、文構含め）
それによって導いた結論があります。
それは、得点の理論値は90%だということです。（平均点は60%を想定）つまり、満点は取れないように出来ています。1割は確実に捨て問、悪問です。
したがって、一問一答や教科書を完璧に記憶し、マークミスなく正確に記述できれば90%の得点は見込めます。ただし、人間誰しも多少のミスや知識の抜け漏れはあるものです。その結果が今の得点率80%ということです。あと一ヶ月半ありますので、85%くらいまでは伸びるでしょう。90%いけば本当に素晴らしいです。ただ、英語を捨て、一ヶ月半で1割上がるか上がらないかの勝負をするならば、両方やって、日本史は85%を狙う、英語は10%か20%上げることを目標にした方が全体的な得点の伸び幅は大きいです。

以上が、むうさんの現状分析です。

最後にまとめです。
今回繰り返し、平均点というデータを用いてきましたが、英検利用ともなれば3科目型より平均点は上昇します。
その上、限界効用逓減の法則によって点数の伸びしろが少ない中で、点数を上げなければならないのが現実。どれだけ英検利用が厳しい戦いかお分かりいただけたかと思います。
3科目型を捨て英検利用に絞るのではなく、英語ミスった時の保険くらいの立ち位置で、英検利用を受け、地道に3科目型の勉強をするのが良いかなと思います。

以上が私からのアドバイスになります。
参考にしてみてください。

（おまけ）
私の2021年度文化構想学部の得点開示です。
科目、素点、調整後の得点、平均点の順です。
英語：44、46.893、36.901
国語：54、44.572、48.95
日本史：41、36.666、31.489

合計点：139、128.131、×
合格最低点：130.62:["$","main",null,{"className":"px-4 pt-4 pb-4","children":["$","div",null,{"className":"max-w-3xl mx-auto w-full","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-8","children":["$","$L7",null,{"href":"https://unilink-app.onelink.me/isbO/h6xeh63x?advice=lIPfMdWhzZ15YO7o","target":"_blank","children":["$","$L8",null,{"src":"/images/web_to_app_banner.jpg","width":3660,"height":1500,"sizes":"100vw","style":{"width":"100%","height":"auto"},"alt":"UniLink WebToAppバナー画像","className":"mb-4 rounded"}]}]}],["$","h1",null,{"className":"text-xl font-semibold mb-2","children":"上智大学の最低ライン"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex justify-between mb-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"text-left text-xs text-caption","children":["クリップ(",31,") コメント(",1,")"]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-right text-xs text-caption","children":"10/10 23:53"}]]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"coach-mark 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運だと思います。\n英語いい調子ですね！頑張ってください！！！"]}]]}],["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-4","children":["$","$L16",null,{"adviserImageUrl":null,"adviserName":"mk2","adviserDepartment":"慶應義塾大学文学部","adviceId":"lIPfMdWhzZ15YO7o","numberOfFan":83,"clipsAvg":37.714285714285715,"adviceRateAvg":4.461538461538462,"profile":"慶應文学部の2年生です\n\n英語、古典、世界史、あまり自信はないですが小論文についてもアドバイスできることはあるかと思います。\n\nまともに受験勉強を始めたのは10月初めぐらいで、そこから世界史は偏差値を30ほどあげました。\n結果、慶應文、上智外国語、上智文、青学文などから合格を頂きました。\n\n受験生の皆さん、最後の1秒まで諦めないのが大事です！\nそして「復習命」です！！！"}]}],["$","div",null,{"children":["$","$L7",null,{"href":"https://ck.jp.ap.valuecommerce.com/servlet/referral?sid=3364577&pid=884970531&vc_url=http%3A%2F%2Fshingakunet.com%2F%3Fvos%3Dnrmnvccp0000100","rel":"nofollow","target":"_blank","children":["$","$L8",null,{"src":"/images/document_request_banner.jpg","width":3660,"height":1500,"sizes":"100vw","style":{"width":"100%","height":"auto"},"alt":"UniLink パンフレットバナー画像","className":"mt-4 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mb-1","children":"こんにちは！\n\n早稲田には標準化というシステムがありますが、これは結局平均点により、素点が動いてしまうため明確にこの点数ということは言えないです！しかし、早稲田には受験者平均点というものがあり、ここからある程度の合格最低点を出すことができます！！受験者平均点は河合塾のサイトなどに載っているので、あくまで目安ですが参考にしてみてください！！\n合格最低点はだいたいこの受験者平均点のだいたいプラス1.5割くらいであると思います！\nですのでこれを取れるように過去問を解く時は意識していきましょう！最終的には受験者平均点プラス2割取れれば合格は固いと思います！\n\n補足として、ここから直前期に悩みやすいどのような早稲田志望の方にここからのおすすめの勉強していく教科の比率を書いておきたいと思います！参考にしてみてください！！\n\n科目の配分についてですが私立文系の3教科の中で英語が一番大切なのは言うまでもないと思います。\n早稲田大学のだいたいの学部（教育と人間科学部の2つは3教科同じ配点）では英語の配点がもっとも高いです。\n慶應大学でも文系学部では全て英語の配点が最も高いためやはり私立文系の中では英語が最も重要です。\nその中で具体的な教科の比率ですが自分は\n\n英語4.5現代文1古文漢文1.5選択科目3（自分は日本史でした。）\n\nではなぜこのような配分にしてたかというと英語がまず最もやることが多く受験生が早慶レベルまで届かない人が多いです。そのため英語に全体の半分弱くらいの労力をかけていました。また国語は暗記とかではあまりないので当日の運も必要だなと思っていました。また、選択科目は自分は日本史でしたがこれはとにかくやればやるだけ点数が上がるので非常に大切だと思います！！\n\nこれを軸にしつつ、超直前期では日本史の割合も増やすことも大切です！最後の最後まで点数は伸びるのでまだまだエンジンを緩めず、アクセル全開で駆け抜けてみてください！！！\n\n参考になれば幸いです！！また、いつでも何か聞きたければこちらのコメントでお答えするのでお気軽にどうぞ！（答えられる範囲で答えます！）頑張ってください！！"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"早稲田大学文化構想学部 入試"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"今気づいて良かったです！\n結論から言うと違います！\n\n恐らくこれは標準化後の最低点数でしょう。\n日本史と世界史で難易度が異なるとき、簡単な科目の方が有利になってしまいます。その差を解消するために偏差値法のようなものをとっています。これが標準化です。これには大学独自の公式があって公表はされていませんが、調べると恐らくこうだろうという公式は出てきます。\n\nこの式をかけると、ほとんどの科目は点数が下がります。なので、68%では足りないというわけです。\nだいたい、70〜75%が合格ラインだと思います。75%あれば安心だと思います。\n\n標準化を一部の科目でかけていない学部もあるのですが、大体の学部でかけているイメージです。文化構想の難易度で68%は低すぎるので、標準化後だと思われます。\n\n最後に、英検利用は社会と国語ができる人が有利です。なぜなら、社会と国語だけで勝負するからです。"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 24","className":"text-subPrimary mr-1","children":["$undefined",[["$","path","0",{"fill":"none","d":"M0 0h24v24H0V0z","children":[]}],["$","path","1",{"d":"M12 6c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2s-.9 2-2 2-2-.9-2-2 .9-2 2-2m0 10c2.7 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"合格者平均について"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"あさひさんお久しぶりです。どんどんと過去問を解いていく一方なかなか点数が伸び悩む時期かもしれません。ここで一つ何かお力になれればと思います。\n\n本回答は以下の構成です。\n\n①受験者平均が7割ということについて\n②合格最低点プラス一割という目標について\n③2月に入るまでに過去問でどの程度得点できていれば良いか\n\n以上、3点でお伝えしていきます。\n\n①受験者平均が7割ということについて\n\n結論、これは国語のみの話ですか？\n\n文学部、文化構想学部の受験者平均点を過去10年に渡り調査しましたが、以下のような結果でした。\n各学部における過去最高の平均点（英国日本史の3科合計）\n\n文学部　130.345点/65.1% （2021年）\n文化構想学部　122.688点/61.344%（2015年）\n\n過去最高がこの数値なので、例年、文学部では6割前半、文化構想学部では5割台に落ち着くでしょう。なお、国語のみをみた場合、平均点が各学部とも7割近い年が多々ありました。したがって、国語だけでしたら「受験者平均点が7割前後」という話は成立するのですが…\n\n②合格最低点プラス1割という目標について\n\n結論、良いと思います\n\n早稲田では、ご存知の通り成績標準化が行われます。また、合格最低点は標準化後の数値を適用しております。ネットでは「標準化の公式」が出回ってはいるため、これを用いれば合格最低点との比較がある程度できるかと思います。\n\n③2月に入るまでに過去問でどの程度得点できていれば良いか\n\n結論、全科目平均点プラス1割です。\n\n超余裕で合格するためには、試験日当日に、\n\n苦手科目は平均点プラス1割、\n得意科目は平均点プラス2割、\nどちらでもない科目は平均点プラス1.5割\n\nを取れるようになっているのが理想です。\nしたがってその前段階として、全科目平均点プラス1割を取れるようになっていると、非常に順調と言えるでしょう。\nですが、あくまでこれは理想なので、苦手科目等がこのラインに到達していなかったとしてもあまり気負いすることはないです。\n\n上記が今回の相談に対する回答となります。\nあさひさんが合格することを心より祈っております。"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex mb-1","children":[["$","svg",null,{"stroke":"currentColor","fill":"currentColor","strokeWidth":"0","viewBox":"0 0 24 24","className":"text-subPrimary mr-1","children":["$undefined",[["$","path","0",{"fill":"none","d":"M0 0h24v24H0V0z","children":[]}],["$","path","1",{"d":"M12 6c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2s-.9 2-2 2-2-.9-2-2 .9-2 2-2m0 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items-center py-4","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"flex-1","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"mb-1","children":"早稲田 人間科学部 最低点"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"text-xs text-caption line-clamp-2 mb-1","children":"現在、早稲田大学人間科学部に在籍している者です。\n基本的にそのくらい取れているのであれば、合格の可能性は充分あると思います。\n私の昨年の入試の結果は自己採点ですが、素点で英語58%、国語85%、日本史84%で正規合格を頂きました。\n早稲田は標準化があるので確実に何割！とは言えませんが、入学後の周りの友達の意見なども鑑みても基本的に英語6割、国語8割、日本史7〜8割取れていれば大丈夫かと思います。ただ、早稲田の中では偏差値が低いといってもマーチ上位と比べても問題の質はかなり高いです。油断せずに取り掛かってください。\n\n国語と日本史に関しては、早稲田の中では解きやすい部類なので8割を確実に狙っていきましょう。昨年に至っては国語の平均が66%というような感じですから、ここでしっかり高得点を取り他の人に差をつけましょう。気をつけるべき点としては、たまに混ざっている難問にこだわり過ぎず、とにかく取れるところから確実にとっていくことですね。\n英語に関しては、大問2と3は難しいので周りの人もあまり点数は伸びません。半分取れればもうお釣りがくる、充分だと割り切って大丈夫です。実際、私も本番ではちょうど半分いくかいかないか位でした。\nそのぶん、大問1はオーソドックスな文章とオーソドックスな問題が並んでいるので、焦らずに解いて8割の正答率（21/25点）を目指してください。ここで満点近く取れれば、合格は半分決まったようなものといっても過言ではないと思います。\nただ人科の英語で不安なのは、2番の前置詞問題と3番の正誤問題かと思います。\n2番は、周りの人もそんなに点数が伸びるところでは無いのでそんなにビビらなくても大丈夫です。\n実際私は人科に関して、過去問も1年分しか解かず対策も解体英熟語をパラパラ見返すくらいしかしませんでしたが、2.3番に共通して熟語をなるだけ詰め込み前置詞のコアミーニングを掴む訓練をしていればかなり有効だと思います。\nまた、3番は今から問題集を解くのもキツイと思うので過去問や社学の過去問、上智大学の過去問で数を解いて慣れておくことも有効だと思います。\n以上、直前になっての回答で申し訳ありませんが、参考になれば幸いです。\nまた何かあれば、お気軽に聞いてくださいね。心から応援しています、頑張ってください！！！"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"flex 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